Sunday, October 30, 2005

The Leaves Changing

Is there another change in the wind? The Oil Drum thinks so:

U.S. refining has tanked due to the expected. It may have bottomed out, but will take awhile to get back to normal.

As expected, U.S. imports of distillates has shot up. This is primarily gasoline imported from Europe.

This chart is a 4 week moving average. That means for there to be a change, it must be a significant change. It looks like the committment by Europe to help with gasoline has peaked, and imports are falling off.

It appears there will be a time lag between when the imports run out, and U.S. refining capacity resumes (chart 1 vs. chart 3). Wonder how much and how long? I hated gas lines in the 70's. I really really don't want them again.


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