Friday, November 04, 2005

Is Fitzmas Over?

John Dean, who was more correct in predicting the initial Fitzmas than anyone else, is making another prediction:
Having read the indictment against Libby, I am inclined to believe more will be issued. In fact, I will be stunned if no one else is indicted.

Indeed, when one studies the indictment, and carefully reads the transcript of the press conference, it appears Libby's saga may be only Act Two in a three-act play. And in my view, the person who should be tossing and turning at night, in anticipation of the last act, is the Vice President of the United States, Richard B. Cheney.
Dean then goes on to lay out the case for why Fitzgerald is going after Cheney, and how Libby is the firewall. Dean concludes:
It has been reported that Libby's attorney tried to work out a plea deal. But Fitzgerald insisted on jail time, so Libby refused to make a deal. It appears that only Libby, in addition to Cheney, knows what Cheney knew, and when he knew, and why he knew, and what he did with his knowledge.

Fitzgerald has clearly thrown a stacked indictment at Libby, laying it on him as heavy as the law and propriety permits. He has taken one continuous false statement, out of several hours of interrogation, and made it into a five-count indictment. It appears he is trying to flip Libby - that is, to get him to testify against Cheney -- and not without good reason. Cheney is the big fish in this case.

Will Libby flip? Unlikely. Neither Cheney nor Libby (I believe) will be so foolish as to crack a deal. And Libby probably (and no doubt correctly) assumes that Cheney - a former boss with whom he has a close relationship -- will (at the right time and place) help Libby out, either with a pardon or financially, if necessary. Libby's goal, meanwhile, will be to stall going to trial as long as possible, so as not to hurt Republicans' showing in the 2006 elections.

So if Libby can take the heat for a time, he and his former boss (and friend) may get through this. But should Republicans lose control of the Senate (where they are blocking all oversight of this administration), I predict Cheney will resign "for health reasons."
This sounds about right...except. I'm not sure that Cheney isn't vulnerable by evidence other than Libby. Time is on Fitzgerald's side on this. And I'm not sure that a strategy of drawing out a trial is a good one for Republicans. It may be good for Cheney and Libby. But I think it severely hurts the GOP as this story has so many tenacles that it is unlikely to just "go away" until the trial.

And then there's Karl Rove.......


Post a Comment

<< Home

Free Counters
Site Counter
eXTReMe Tracker