Thursday, September 29, 2005


I ran across this in the summary of MSNBC's First Read:
Democrats' growing conviction that they've come up with a formula to win in 2006 overlooks the fact that while Bush's standing in the polls has dropped, theirs has not risen.
This is some more of that "coventional wisdom" that should be challenged.

While true in substance, polls at this point in the election cycle are always a referendum on "government" in general. In other words, people respond to questions in polls rating their satisfaction by painting a very broad brush. I suspect many in this poll don't even know who controls Congress.

When election time rolls around, perception tends to clear and separate those who are "in" vs. those who are "out". Indeed, one of the main jobs of a campaign is differentiation. Let's hope Dems know how to do it well.


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