Thursday, December 08, 2005

Election Primer

I know it doesn't really matter a whole lot. But there is an impending election in Iraq to choose the government for the next four years.

Richard Engel, blogging from Bagdad:
Analysts I’ve spoken to think it will play out like this: the 555 list [coalition of Shiite fundamentalists] will win the most seats in Parliament, but not an overwhelming majority.

The Kurds will sweep the north and again form a powerful bloc.

Allawi [the U.S. "candidate"] will make a strong showing (winning even some Shiites unhappy with the performance of the current Shiite-led government, and some Sunnis).

The Sunni parties collectively will come in forth.

In the end we’ll have four powerful blocs: Religious Shiite, Kurdish nationalist, Secular moderate, and Sunni nationalist (with some Islamic and Baath party resistance members thrown in).
That sounds about right. Can anyone imagine anything other than an armed conflict, perhaps three-way, with the secular moderates in the middle? The Kurds are not going to give up sovereignty, the Sunni's are not going to give up the belief that they should be the leaders, and the Shiites are not going to ever be put under anyone's thumb again.

And suppose, by some miracle, there is a peaceful settlement among these parties. Iraq then becomes essentially a theorcracy.

In all fairness to the Preznit, this was likely to be the outcome eventually even without U.S. intervention. It's just that little matter of dead Americans and dead Iraqi's that are needlessly....dead...because Bush thought he could play god.


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